方恩格快評》刪Q的阿共陰謀論

2021年10月23日臺中市第10屆立委臺中市第2選舉區陳柏惟罷免案過關，陳柏惟上臺表示，「我沒有輸」。（黃國峰攝）

如果說臺中第二選區選民成功罷免立委陳柏惟，臺灣人民應該能夠達成共識的一件事，就是罷免程序有效。近年來，臺灣舉行了多次罷免投票，包括市長、市議員和立法委員。這些罷免有些成功了，有些則失敗了，但幾乎沒有任何指控或證據表明可能有影響罷免投票結果的不當行爲。可以理解，失敗方的支持者感到失望，在某些情況下，失敗方指責對方出於惡意原因罷免，但終究，法治和民主佔了上風。陳柏惟罷免的高投票率重申了臺灣選民參與民主的願望。

臺灣人不會同意的一件事是中國是否支持罷免。陳柏惟對中國的直言不諱，以及他對臺獨的主張，肯定會引起中國大陸的注意。甚至在計票過程中，也有媒體報導陳柏惟團隊的資深成員李雨蓁在臉書上指稱有計票違規行爲，但臺中市選舉委員會對此予以否認。陳柏惟的支持者認爲有投票違規行爲的，可以研究一下美國2020年11月大選的經驗，共和黨選民和政客到現在仍然聲稱選舉有不當行爲。

國民黨在2018年地方選舉中獲勝後，外國學者（他們對臺灣的瞭解往往比他們想像的要少得多）開始重複指控國民黨的成功是由於中國大陸對臺灣選舉的滲透。這些學者引用的例子包括對臺灣候選人和政黨的非法經濟援助等指控，以及在中國製作的有利國民黨和批評民進黨的互聯網內容。雖然在某種程度上中國大陸網民確實做了這些事情，但沒有證據顯示對岸的行動改變了臺灣選民的投票行爲。

事實上，國民黨在2018年地方選舉的成功，是因爲當時對民進黨領導的中央政府表現不滿，選民不喜歡民進黨的一些市長或縣長候選人，以及幾個公投議題當天也進行了投票，激發了想要表達對中央政府不滿的選民。

當外國學者稱中共可以如此輕易地操縱檯灣選民的決定時，筆者懷疑他們是否對臺灣政治發展一無所知，或者他們是否看不起臺灣選民。

或許在未來幾天，外媒報導或外國學者都會有類似的指控，稱中國的滲透是臺中第二立法選區選民罷免陳柏惟的原因。我們希望任何提出這一指控的人都能用證據來說話。

Chen Po-Wei Recall “Conspiracy” Theories

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

If there is one thing that Taiwan people should be able to agree on about the successful recall of Legislator Chen Po-wei by voters in Taichung’s second legislative constituency is that the recall process works. In recent years Taiwan has had several recall elections including for a mayor city councilors and legislators. Some of these recalls succeeded and some failed but there is little allegation (or proof) of any kind of wrongdoing that could affect the recall vote result. Understandably supporters on the losing side are disappointed and in some cases the losing side accuses the other side of bringing the recall for malicious reasons but ultimately the rule of law and democracy prevail. The high turnout for the Chen Po-wei recall reaffirms Taiwan voters desire to participate in democracy.

One thing people in Taiwan will not agree on is whether or not China was behind the recall. Chen Po-wei’s outspoken views on China and his advocacy for Taiwan’s independence certainly would attract China’s attention. Even during the vote counting media reported that Lee Yu-chen (李雨蓁) a senior member of Chen Po-wei’s team alleged on Facebook there are vote counting irregularities though the Taichung City Election Commission denied this. Chen Po-wei’s supporters who believe there are voting irregularities can study the experience of Republican voters and politicians in the United States who still allege wrongdoing in the November 2020 US election.

After the Kuomintang’s success in the 2018 local election foreign scholars (who often know far less about Taiwan than they think they do) began to repeat the allegation that that the Kuomintang’s success was due to China infiltration of Taiwan election. Examples these scholars cite include allegations of illegal financial assistance to candidates and political parties in Taiwan and Internet content produced in China that favors the Kuomintang and criticizes the Democratic Progressive Party. While China does do these things to some extent there is no proof that China’s actions changed Taiwan voter behavior.

In fact the Kuomintang’s success in the 2018 local elections was due to dissatisfaction at the time with the performance of the Democratic Progressive Party led central government voter dislike of some of the Democratic Progressive Party candidates for mayor or county executive and several referendum topics which were also voted on that day and energized voters who wanted to express their unhappiness with the central government.

When foreign scholars allege China can so easily manipulate Taiwan voter decisions this author wonders whether they are ignorant of Taiwan political developments or if they look down on Taiwan’s voters.

Perhaps in the coming days there will be similar allegations in foreign language reporting or by foreign scholars that China’s infiltration is why voters in Taichung’s second legislative constituency recalled Chen Po-wei. Let’s hope that anyone who makes this allegation can support it with evidence.

※以上言論不代表旺中媒體集團立場※